Anti Back Fit & Advanced Filters in Hedger Pro
Building Resilient Strategies
Hi everyone,
You're now familiar with the foundational power of Hedger Pro's Research tool to build your own systems. But to truly create strategies that stand the test of time, you need to understand two critical concepts: Anti Back Fit and the wealth of advanced filters at your fingertips.
Whether you're looking to fortify your existing systems or curious about discovering deeper market insights, this post will guide you.
What is Hedger Pro?
For newcomers, Hedger Pro is your advanced platform for horse racing analysis, strategy building, and automated betting. We empower you to create, test, and deploy your own data-driven betting systems with precision and confidence.
For Our Valued Hedger Pro Members:
You've embarked on your system-building journey. Now, let's explore how to make those systems truly robust and uncover even more precise profit opportunities.
Fortify Your Strategy: The "Anti Back Fit" Feature
In the 'Research' tab, when you're building or editing a system, you'll see a crucial feature called 'Anti Back Fit.' This isn't just a setting; it's a vital safeguard against a common pitfall in system building: 'over-fitting.'
Over-fitting happens when a system looks incredibly profitable on past data, but then performs poorly in the future because it's too tailored to random historical fluctuations, rather than genuine, repeatable patterns.
How Anti Back Fit Works: The filter charts you use to build your system (e.g., for Class, Draw, Odds) will display historical data only up to a certain point in the past (the default is typically 6 months ago, but you can adjust this date). This effectively simulates you researching your system back then.
Crucially, the main P&L chart in Research then shows you how that exact system actually performed since that "anti back-fit" date. If the green section (representing profits after this historical cut off date) is still strong and trending upwards, your system is more robust and likely to perform well going forward! It helps ensure your strategy is genuinely effective, not just a lucky historical anomaly.
Uncover Deeper Insights: Advanced Research Filters
Ready to go beyond the basics? The 'Filters Editor' in the 'Research' tab holds a vast array of advanced filters that can help you uncover even more profitable nuances in the data.
Open it up again and let's look at some powerful categories you might not have explored yet:
Last Time Out (LTO) Data: This section is a goldmine for understanding recent performance. Filters like LTO Pos (position last time out), LTO Odds, or LTO Going can reveal strong patterns. For example, you might find that horses that finished in the top three last time out on similar going perform exceptionally well.
Price Categories: Beyond just basic odds, explore WAP (Weighted Average Price), PRD (Predicted Price at post time), and POP (Price Over Place). These sophisticated metrics can tell you a lot about market sentiment and where the smart money is going. Pay close attention to how these impact profitability in the charts.
In-Depth Performance Stats: Dig into more nuanced statistics like Horse Age, Trainer Form, or Jockey/Trainer Combinations. Often, the most profitable systems are found by combining a few unexpected but powerful filters that reveal a true edge.
Understanding Your Stakes: 'Side' and 'Stake As' in Research When you're building a system in the 'Research' tab, remember to define the Side (Backing or Laying) and how the Stake is applied (Liab for liability/stake, or Profit for a target profit). This ensures your research accurately reflects your intended betting approach and how auto bets will eventually be placed.
Action for Today (For Everyone!):
Existing Hedger Pro Users: Dive into the 'Research' tab with one of your existing systems (or a newly imported example system). Experiment with the 'Anti Back Fit' feature and observe how it impacts the main P&L chart. Then, open the 'Filters Editor' and experiment with adding some of the advanced filters mentioned above (e.g., from LTO or Price categories) to refine your strategy.
New to Hedger Pro? These advanced features are why Hedger Pro users gain a true edge. Join Hedger Pro today at www.hedgerpro.co.uk to access the Research tool and start building truly resilient betting strategies!
In our next post, we'll shift our focus to managing your multiple systems and optimizing your automated betting processes with the powerful 'Portfolio' tab.
Happy refining,
The Hedger Pro Team